This research projects the population size, structure and disability rate of rural older adults based on the six waves of Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey data from 2002 to 2018 and the Seventh National Census data. The result shows that the population size and the proportion of rural people aged 65 and above will increase from 90.35 million and 17.72% in 2020 to 124.38 million and 33.14% in 2035. The ADL disability rate of rural older adults will drop from 5.76% in 2020 to 4.92% in 2035, due to the decline of age-specific disability risk and the ageing population structure. Men's and women's disability rates will drop from 4.92% and 6.55% to 3.79% and 5.87%, respectively. The rural elderly population with disabilties is showing a trend towards severe disability and ageing. The decline in the total disability rate is mainly caused by the rapid decline in the mild disability rate, which was brought about by the reduction in the risk of age-specific disability. The moderate disability rate declined slightly and the severe disability rate continued to rise. The rate of moderate and severe disability are both around 4%. The study provides reliable data for the improvement of rural older care service capabilities and the promotion of long-term care insurance coverage to rural residents.

Population monitoring is the fundamental work for carrying out population strategy research and solving population problems. Establishing and Improving the population monitoring system is not only the responsibility of the government, but also has theoretical and methodological significance in the field of demographic statistics. Globally, all countries in the world attach importance to population monitoring, and basically follow the model of “administrative records + monitoring and investigation”. Countries with complete vital registration system also conduct demographic surveys to make up for the deficiency of administrative records, while countries with imperfect administrative records rely on demographic surveys to carry out population monitoring. This paper examines the detailed practices of the largest demographic and health survey in the world, mainly in developing countries, in perspective of organization and implementation, survey content, questionnaire design, sample size, sampling methods, and data development and application. Based on the current situation of Chinas demographic surveys, this paper describes China's population monitoring system, clarifies the features of Chinas population monitoring system, and also puts forward the key work of the current population monitoring system construction in China.